Social Cleavages and Party Decline in Contemporary India: The Case of the Indian National Congress

Background and Purpose: For much of independent India’s history, the Indian National Congress occupied a distinctive position in the country’s political landscape, functioning as a broad coalition capable of bridging deep social divisions across caste, class, and community. Its enduring dominance derived not from ideological uniformity but from an organizational capacity to accommodate diversity and sustain inclusive electoral alliances. Since 2014, however, the party has experienced a prolonged and consequential electoral decline that resists simple explanation. This paper contends that attributing this trajectory solely to leadership failures or isolated political events is insufficient. What is unfolding, the study argues, is a deeper structural erosion of the coalitions that once formed the bedrock of Congress’s political strength.

Methods: This study is grounded in social cleavage theory, approaching Congress’s decline as a crisis of political articulation and coalition coherence rather than one of social irrelevance. A mixed-methods research design is employed, drawing on electoral data from the Election Commission of India, post-election survey data from the Center for the Study of Developing Societies (CSDS)-Lokniti, and qualitative analysis of party discourse spanning 2014 to 2024. Together, these sources allow for a layered examination of how the party’s relationship with its core constituencies has evolved and, in critical respects, deteriorated over the past decade.

Results: The findings reveal three distinct patterns of coalition disengagement. Caste-based constituencies have fragmented rather than consolidated, weakening a historically reliable base. Class recomposition has diminished the effectiveness of welfare-centered electoral appeals across socioeconomic groups. Meanwhile, minority support, though retained, has become increasingly defensive in character - sufficient to preserve a floor of support but insufficient to anchor broader coalition building. Social cleavages in India remain politically salient, yet Congress has struggled to translate them into a coherent and competitive political project.

Conclusion: The study’s findings suggest that Congress’s electoral difficulties are structural in nature and cannot be resolved through organizational or leadership adjustments alone. The party’s challenge lies in reconstructing a political language capable of integrating fragmented constituencies into a renewed and credible coalition. These conclusions carry significant implications for scholars of party politics, analysts of South Asian democracy, and practitioners engaged with questions of electoral strategy and democratic representation in contemporary India.